New Survey Shows the Canadian Government’s Zero-Emission Vehicle Targets May Not Match the Plans of Canadian Buyers.
Just 12% of respondents in a recent survey by LARi Insight indicated their next car purchase would be an all-electric vehicle, while 39% chose a hybrid vehicle option, and 49% indicated they would buy a gas-powered vehicle.
The low demand for zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) comes as industry reports reveal a slowdown in ZEV registrations in Q1 of 2024. According to data from S&P Global Mobility, 12.5% of new vehicle registrations in Q1 were ZEVs, down from 13.2% in Q4 2023.
Among the age ranges segmented in the study, buyers in the 25-and-under age range were most likely to buy an ZEV. The propensity to buy a gas-powered vehicle generally increased with age, with those over the age of 56 being most likely to buy a gas vehicle. The potential for more rapid adoption of ZEVs exists among the next generation of buyers, but is the momentum strong enough to match the targets of Canada’s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard?
Plug-in Hybrids May be Key To Reaching the Government’s Zero-Emission Targets
With a mandate to sell 100% zero-emission vehicles by 2035, our survey data suggests significant change in consumer mindsets is required to reach Canada’s targets. It is important to note the Government’s definition of “zero-emission” includes plug-in hybrid vehicles. Sales of plug-in hybrids rose from 3.2% of new registrations in Q4 2023 to 3.3% in Q1 2024. With a much higher share of survey respondents expressing interest in a hybrid vehicle (39%), plug-in hybrids may be the key to reaching the Federal Plan targets.
The gap today vs. the Government’s 20% target just 1.5 years away is 4.2%. It’s achievable if, like our survey respondents, a healthy percentage of buyers opt for a plug-in hybrid rather than a hybrid vehicle that cannot be charged from an external energy source. That ratio today is about 1:3 – if extrapolated to the 39% of survey respondents opting to buy a hybrid vehicle, that could add 10% to the zero-emission total, enough to exceed the 2026 target. That also presumes that the recent decline of ZEV sales as a percentage would stop.
Zero-Emission Vehicle Sales Targets from the Canadian Federal Plan
(% of all cars, SUVs, crossovers, and light-duty pickup trucks sold)
| Year | Target % of New Vehicle Registrations |
| 2026 | 20% |
| 2030 | 60% |
| 2035 | 100% |
Do Canadians Believe the 100% Zero-Emission Goal is Achievable?
When asked whether they believe zero-emission vehicles will be the dominant form of transportation within 20 years, 24% indicated yes, 29% said no, and 47% were unsure.
They cited reasons such as:
Yes, due to: environmental concerns, technological advancements improving battery performance and affordability, government incentives, expanding charging infrastructure, increasing consumer demand, and industry trends toward electrification
No, due to: personal preference, cost, cold weather performance, vehicle range, availability of charging stations, and infrastructure to support charging needs
Do you think electric vehicles will replace gas-powered vehicles in the next 20 years?
| No, because… | Yes, because… |
| “People love the sound and smell of gasoline vehicles” - M, from Montreal | “The emissions from gas vehicles are destroying the planet” - G, Toronto |
| “Costly to buy and repair. Not great in winter.” - M, Brampton | “Electric cars are cheaper to run and reduce air pollution” - D, Calgary |
| “A person can get stuck on a highway in a snowstorm with no charging stations around.” - J, Vancouver | “Increasing demand, and infrastructure will ramp up as more electric cars get on the road” - M, Brantford |
What is Influencing Canadians’ Lack of Enthusiasm for EVs?
Provincial Rebates are an Important Factor
The Federal Government offers up to $5,000 for buyers of eligible ZEVs through the iZEV program. Additional rebates are available in some provinces. Multiple survey respondents mentioned the lack of a rebate in Ontario as a limiting factor for ZEV uptake – Ontario cancelled a $14,000 rebate program in 2018. Quebec currently offers the top rebate amount, and the province has surpassed both Ontario and BC to become the top province for EV adoption.
| Province | EV Rebate | Q1 2024 EV Registration % | EV % of Canada |
| $2,500 to $5,000 depending on vehicle type | $2,500 to $5,000 depending on vehicle type | 12.5% | |
| Alberta | None | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| British Columbia | $500-$2,000 for plug-in hybrids with less than 85 km range $1,000 - $4,000 for battery electric and long-range plug-in hybrids | 21.9% | 21.1% |
| Manitoba | None | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| New Brunswick | Battery electric: New ($5,000), Used ($2,500). Long-range plug-in hybrid: New ($2,500), Used ($1,000) | 6.0% | 1.0% |
| Nova Scotia | $3,000 per new ZEV, $2,000 for used vehicles and $500 for e-bikes | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Newfoundland & Labrador | $2,500 for short-range plug-in hybrids to $5,000 for battery electric and longer-range plug-in hybrids | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Northwest Territories | None | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nunavut | None | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Ontario | None | 7.0% | 22.6% |
| Prince Edward Island | $5,000 for a new or used EV. $2,500 for a plug-in hybrid. | 7.1% | 0.3% |
| Quebec | Up to $7,000 on EVs under $60,000 | 25% | 48.7% |
| Yukon | None | 10.6% | 0.1% |
Data Source: S&P Global Mobility: Canadian Automotive Insights, Q1 2024
Note: Several provinces offer rebates for home charging stations: Visit Chargehub for more info.
Range Limits and Charging Station Availability
Among respondents who indicated they would choose a gas vehicle over an electric or hybrid, more than 76% indicated that “not having to worry about range limits or finding a charging station” was the top factor. Cost was the next most selected option at 26%, followed by the style or performance of a particular vehicle at 13%. Among those who chose a hybrid vehicle as their next ride, range limits were also the top factor at 68%, while cost (23%) and style/performance (9%) played a lesser role.
Electric Vehicle Disinformation and Myths Influence Some Canadian Car Buyers
There are undisputed limitations and tradeoffs with ZEVs such as range and cost; however, much of the opposition expressed toward electric vehicles was based on assumptions or opinions that have little to no basis in fact. We’ve explained some of the most common EV myths and conceptions in another post.
These opinions are sufficiently persistent, and so pervasive in some social media circles, that it’s worth questioning: “where is this coming from?”. A cybersleuthing analysis of online disinformation sources is beyond the scope of this article, but when you consider that there are massive lobby groups, multinational corporations, and entire countries whose economic fortune is dependent on petroleum sales, you can likely imagine a pretty viable lineup of suspects.
Market Forces and Government Action Could Help Canada Reach Its EV Targets
The government has time and sufficient levers to get Canada’s EV targets on track with the long-term plan. Federal and provincial governments can increase EV incentives. And as EVs move into mainstream production, costs will continue to come down. However, tariff wars are a wild card for future prices. The EU and US have imposed tariffs on Chinese EV imports, and Canada is considering similar policy. New tariffs could generate price hikes that put EVs out of range of some buyers.
Make an Informed Decision on Your Next Vehicle Purchase
Purchasing a vehicle can have a significant impact on your financial plan and your budget. Our EV vs. Gas Cost Calculator lets you easily assess the annual and total cost of ownership for different vehicles in Canada. Other resources to help with your choice include: our car loan calculator, and our post about deciding whether to lease or buy a vehicle.
Our survey included 648 Canadians aged 18 years and over, ending July 29, 2024. The results of this survey have a margin of error of 3 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%.
